Foreign Funds Back to Indonesia


After a massive get out during May 2010, this month re-entry of foreign funds into the financial and capital markets of Indonesia. This condition makes the exchange rate tends to strengthen again.

Director of Economic Research and Monetary Policy Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo, Monday (21/06/2010) in Jakarta, explained that the flow of foreign funds back in because the trust fund to invest in emerging markets, including Indonesia, back up. Moreover, the prospects for the Indonesian economy continues to improve.

Foreign funds in Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), for example, increased to Rp 4.2 trillion in the past week. This makes foreign funds in SBI reached Rp 37.7 trillion as of June 18, 2010.

Earlier, during May 2010, foreign funds flowing out of the SBI increased uncertainty following the European settlement of the crisis. At that time, foreign investors pulled their funds from the SBI and transferred to the U.S. dollar denominated instruments, which is considered more secure.

Throughout the month of May, foreign funds out of the SBI Rp 47 trillion, which makes a significant weakening of rupiah exchange rate. As a result of it all, the position of foreign funds in SBI dropped, from Rp 82.99 trillion at the end of April 2010 to Rp 36.36 trillion at the end of May 2010.

According to Perry, in addition to the SBI, the foreign funds are also flowing into the SBN and stocks. As of June 18, 2010, the position of foreign funds in the SBN Rp 151.68 trillion, an increase of USD 7.6 trillion, compared to the end of May 2010 which is only Rp 144.09 trillion. In the same period, total SBN increased 4.82 trillion, from Rp 609.68 trillion to Rp 614.5 trillion. This means that all additional SBN hired in June 2010 on foreigners.

Earlier, such as SBI, foreign positions in the SBN down around Rp 4 trillion during May 2010 due to the crisis in Europe.

In the stock market, boosting the flow of foreign funds Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. In trading yesterday, the Jakarta Composite Index rose 12.31 points to 2941.9 level. Foreign investor transactions recorded a net buy USD 423.3 billion.

Perry explains, the BI policy requires that investors hold a minimum one-month SBI (one-month holding period) in fact, do not reduce foreign interest in buying SBI. Foreign investors precisely assess the prospects for Indonesia’s financial markets become better with the policy.

Economist Dradjad Wibowo rate, the policy of the holding period of one month is good. However, coordination should be accompanied with the Ministry of Finance to avoid speculation SBN made due to excess liquidity event.

As the improving outlook for the Indonesian economy, the international rating agency Moody’s yesterday raised Indonesia’s debt rating outlook in the domestic and foreign currency from stable to positive. Positive Outlook indicates the possibility of Indonesia to increase the ranking in one year ahead, in which Indonesia needs two more notch to investment grade from Moody’s.

In a press release, Moody’s explained, a positive outlook also reflects the strengthening of the Indonesian economy to grow a sustainable, balanced by the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy stability.

BI Rate Could Rise By 0.50 Percent


President Commissioner of PT OCBC NISP, Pramukti Surjaudaja, said the government would increase the Electricity Basic Tariff in early July followed by 10 percent and fuel oil will push the inflation rate in the country increased, which in turn will trigger the benchmark interest rate Bank Indonesia could increase by around 0.25 to 0.50 percent.

“Increase in Electricity Basic Tariff (TDL) for 10 percent of which will be subject to public middle to upper will trigger an interest rate (BI Rate) of Bank Indonesia increased by about 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent by the end of this year,” he said after the signing cooperation between NISP, OCBC Bank and Hana Bank in Jakarta, Monday (06/21/2010).

According Pramukti, an increase in TDL were indeed unavoidable in addition to improving performance, PLN will also fix the electrical pipes worn. “But the increase would trigger a TDL in the domestic inflation rate increases. The increase in the rate of inflation is expected to trigger the BI Rate was also strengthened,” he said.

If the increase in the rate of inflation is not so large, he added, the BI Rate is expected to be still at the level of 6.5 percent. “We expect the BI was still at 6.5 percent level, so that bank lending rates which currently range from 11 percent to 12 percent will still survive,” he said.

But if the inflation rate increased quite high, it will also push BI rate moves up and also sparked increased interest bank loans. “The increase in bank credit interest is estimated that only about 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent,” he said.

Pramukti Surjaudaja said, the increase in bank lending rates is estimated to hard to resist, but the increase was probably not immediately. “Banks will adjust it if it costs increase operational costs tend to increase,” he said.

Meanwhile, President Director of PT OCBC NISP, Parvati Surjaudaja said the government would be hard to avoid the rate increase TDL, although the cause of pros and cons. “We believe governments have their own policies on increase in TDL that, although done in a very heavy,” he said.

Stronger Rupiah against U.S. Dollar


Starting this week, the rupiah strengthened against the U.S. dollar (U.S.). Until 12:01 o’clock am, Monday (6/14/2010), the rupiah has strengthened by 0.19 percent to USD 9177.5 per U.S. dollar in the spot market.

Muscle rupiah strengthened based on Bank Indonesia middle rate. On this day, the rupiah traded at Rp 9184 per U.S. dollar. This exchange rate strengthened when compared with last weekend, where the rupiah traded at Rp 9,200 per U.S. dollar.

The strengthening of rupiah currency is also coupled with other Asian countries. This reinforcement led by won. Domestic currency exchange rate has gone up this Ginseng 1.7 percent to 1225.65 per U.S. dollar at 12:52 pm Seoul time. While the Malaysian ringgit also show off by 0.3 percent to 3260 per U.S. dollar.

Strengthening the Asian country’s currency because investors are optimistic that economic recovery continues. One was predictive of increased consumption in the United States.

Stocks 'Bluechips' prop Index

Increase stock price bluechips especially the mining sector and trade energize Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on Monday (6/14/2010) this. Since open until 9:40 o’clock pm, the index was up 0.79 percent to 2824.89 level than the closing level last weekend.

Several layers of shares which increased the price of PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) rose 1.63 percent to USD 43 700, PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) rose 2.72 percent to USD 18 850, PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah Tbk (IMTG) rose 1.12 percent to USD 36 000, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) rose 0.64 percent to Rp 7,900, and PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) rose 1.78 percent to USD 34 300.

While the number of shares which opposes the flow or decrease in the price of PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) fell 0.58 percent to Rp 8550, PT Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) fell 0.60 percent to Rp 166, PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk (INVS) dropped 0 , 62 percent to Rp 1,600, PT Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (Suli) fell 1.75 percent to Rp 112, and PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) fell 0.92 percent to Rp 1080.

Sucorinvest Central Gani predicts stronger JCI will fluctuate with the potential profit taking at the level of 2779-2812. Strengthening the stochastic indicator is marked oscilator the golden cross in the normal area and moving average indicator shows bearish potential alerts in the near future.