Darwin Financial Investing

The price of gold in the international market dropped to the lowest level in three months. However, precious metals prices are still above the 1000 level of U.S. dollars.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange Comex division, Thursday (28/1/2010) local time, February delivery gold prices closed 0.08 percent lower at 1083.60 U.S. dollars per ounce.

While in Hong Kong, Friday morning, precious metals prices fell to a position opened 1.086,00-1.087,00 U.S. dollars per ounce, cheaper than the closing 1.089,50-1.090,50 Thursday in U.S. dollar positions.

admin | Gold Investing | 02 19th, 2010 | No Comments »

U.S. stocks slumped on Thursday (28/1/2010) local time because the technology sector pressured by weak projections from Qualcomm and increasing economic anxiety after comments from Standard & Poor’s of British banks.

The market also responded warmly to the economic comment in his official speech of U.S. President Barack Obama, where he stressed to put more effort to create jobs and also ordered to reduce spending.

Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 115.70 points (1.13 percent) to 10,120.46. The Nasdaq composite index slumped 42.41 points (1.91 percent) to 2179.00, while the index of the Standard & Poor’s 500 slid 12.97 points (1.18 percent) to 1084.53.

“The market seemed to react by an S & P statement that British banks are no longer among the best banking systems ‘low risk’,” said a senior adviser to the equity markets Advisors Wells Fargo, Scott Marcouiller.

“We no longer classify the British Empire in the global banking system the most stable and low-risk,” S & P call in a report.

While warning of profit by the technology group Qualcomm pulled down. “Depressed technology sector at all levels of the market and weakness-sector weighed heavily on other key sectors so that they all recorded losses,” analysts at Briefing.com said in a client note.

Market participants respond to a variety of state Obama’s speech, where he focused on the restoration of sustained growth.

Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight, said Obama “has quickly rearrange priorities to focus on economic and fiscal discipline”.

“This is an important and skilled actions by the President to get back support from voters,” he added. “Restoring economic growth support is necessary precondition for involving the public in some of the deeper, more annoying problem.”

However, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates commented, “It’s interesting to talk about fiscal honesty and then offer more government stimulus …. Maybe it will affect psychologically and perhaps respond to polls show that most of the fiscal lose public appeal. ”

While the U.S. Labor Department reported that weekly initial claims of unemployment insurance in the week ended January 23 fell to 470,000 from 478,000 the previous week. That’s slightly worse than economists estimated around 450,000.

U.S. Commerce Department said orders for big ticket manufactured goods rose in December, the U.S. 0.3 percent, far below the 2.0 percent economists predicted.

When trading closed, the U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke easily won endorsement for a term of four years, although both had an attack of his role before the 2008 financial crisis.

“It’s clear some uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and limit the damage to the credibility of central banks,” said Ryan Sweet at Moody’s Economy.com.

Qualcomm fell 14.24 percent to 40.48 dollars after the chip maker lowered sales estimates for 2010.

admin | Stock Report | 02 19th, 2010 | No Comments »

Beginning in January 2010, the world was shocked by the potential debt crisis in Europe. The average public debt in the 16 EU member states 84 percent of gross domestic product or GDP in 2010. That’s well above the maximum limit of public debt according to the Stability and Growth Pact, which is 60 per cent of GDP.

Germany, the famous disciplined fiscal stability, will suffer an increase in public debt from 78 per cent of GDP this year. While the French public debt reached 75.8 percent of GDP in the third quarter-2008. Greek public debt will reach 120 percent of GDP in 2010. (Kompas, January 4, 2010).

In the Asian zone. Japan reported debt would reach 53.5 trillion yen, equivalent to 597 billion U.S. dollars, for the fiscal year 1 April 2009-31 March 2010. This new record in the history of the country’s debt.

Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fuji in Tokyo, December 8, 2009, has hinted the Japanese budget situation will face serious problems (Kompas, December 9, 2009).

Indonesia has had government debt ratios of 89 percent of GDP in 2000, while total liabilities reached USD 1234.28 trillion. In October 2009, the ratio of government debt fell to as low as 30 percent of GDP, but the nominal debt increased to $ 1602.19 billion.

Why do governments around the world tend to be indebted to finance budget country?

One of the basic platform that can explain this is the preposition that expressed two Nobel Economics Prize recipient, Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller. Both are popular with the formulation prepositions M & M I and II.

Modigliani and Miller mengasosiakan preposisinya in business institutions. We have shown a tendency directed the state’s financial management such as financial management firms. This is because the financial management of companies judged more efficient, transparent, and effective.

Preposition M & M I stated, the value of an institution does not depend on the structure of capital, whether debt or increase the capital injection from its shareholders. A company that decides to finance its business by 70 percent debt and 30 percent of the company’s capital injection is the same value, although the composition is reversed, 30 percent debt and 70 percent of shareholder capital.

In the realm of state finances, shareholders are the people. The contribution of the people as a shareholder done through tax payments. The greater the tax paid, the lower the dependence of these countries from debt.

European zone facing a difficult situation because of their debt burden increase, while the lower tax payments because people depressed global financial crisis that hit since the end of 2008.

Ironically, the debt is taken in large numbers in 2009 are used to restrain the impact of worsening of the crisis, in the form of fiscal stimulus. However, the fiscal stimulus was not able to sustain significant economic recovery.

Then, in which the position of Indonesia in 2010? Government bond issuance target Rp 175.6 trillion. This is much higher than the total government bonds issued in 2009, ie Rp 144 trillion.

Judging from the ratio of debt to GDP will be no decrease it. Nominal GDP in 2009, in the position of USD 5401.6 trillion, while GDP in 2010 to $ 5981.37 billion.

With the increasing debt value, debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall from 30 percent in 2009 to be lower in 2010. This means, of funds derived from debt will be less in sustaining economic growth and operations of government.

But, back to the prepositions M & M I, shareholders do like the choice of debt because it would raise income per share owned. However, they also must be ready with another situation, namely a secondary party.

This is because any profits received by the company must first be used to pay obligations to bondholders or creditors, just next to shareholder dividends.

Thus, the more debt the government would take greater state revenues used to pay interest and principal debt. The rest had other needs, including building infrastructure, social welfare, and so on.

Second preposition

On Preposition M & M II, Modigliani-Miller warned of the risk for companies that continually push new debt. The greater the debt is taken, the higher the cost will be paid if deemed defaulted.

Shareholders are not satisfied if some of its earnings eroded by the number of debt to be paid. This means, the government needs to take into account the cost of bond issuance and withdrawal of debt that will appear along with the withdrawal of new debt.

In 2009, the Ministry of Finance noted the cost savings bonds and the issuance of debt of about Rp 15 trillion.

However, the total cost of bond issuance and withdrawal of the debt was Rp 95.49 trillion. This is relatively high because almost equivalent to nine times the budget of commodity price stabilization programs that only Rp 10 trillion. Budget represents the cost of infrastructure in 2010, ie Rp 93.35 trillion.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati has said, every penny of the debt should be obtained for investment. With the investment, every penny can provide greater benefits from an initial capital.

However, it seems that the Indonesian people still need to be patient because the ratio of debt to GDP is still about 30 percent. It takes extra efforts to boost tax revenue to be the only source of replacement debt.

admin | Credit & Loan | 02 15th, 2010 | No Comments »

PT Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk (BBP) offers a prime shares earlier this year with a target to raise at least USD 1 trillion. Revenue funds from the sale of shares and warrants will be used for investment and working capital.

PT Benakat Petroleum is an energy company in Indonesia with a focus on increasing value through upstream oil and gas development and mining of various commodities coupled with engineering services, procurement and construction (EPC).

Benakat management along with managing underwriters emission shares have agreed to offer as much as 11.5 billion of new shares to the public offering price range of USD 120-USD 140 per share, in which for all the issued shares of warrants attached to as many as 6.5 billion in warrants.

Thus, the target acquisition IPO funds will be obtained a minimum of Rp 1 trillion for the ownership share of 38.34 percent. PT Danatama Makmur acting as underwriters managing the stock of emissions with the full capability of the entire issued shares. If the excess demand, then the party examine the possibility of removing Benakat additional same again.

According to President Director Benakat Wiguna Arifin, in a press conference on Wednesday (27 / 1), the Jak arta, income from the sale of fund shares and warrants will be used for investment and working capital, among others for the construction of oil and gas production facilities, coal, and stone manganese. The fund is also for the purchase of supporting equipment pr oduksi, and maximize return on the invested value.

Due Dilligence Meeting (DDM) and the public exposure made with Danatama Benakat as part of the initial offering period in the process of IPO shares, which performed to explore the initial interest from prospective investors both retail and institutional want any prospective underwriter of shares. Initial bidding process lasted from January 19 until January 28, 2010, with a target stock listing on the Stock Exchange is planned for Indonesia February 11, 2010.

We are optimistic Benakat IPO will get a positive response from various groups of investors both domestic and international. This can be seen from the positive response we got during the roadshows in several countries including Singapore and Hong Kong we have done, said Steffen Fang, Vice President of Investment Banking of PT Danatama Makmur.

Steffen added that oil and gas sector is believed to still be a prima donna and the mainstay of investment and has a bright prospect in line with national economic growth is conducive. This will encourage companies to get a regular cash flow and be one of the attractions for potential investors.

One of the maximum potential energy sources affiliated companies owned by PT Western Petroleum Benakat who has been working with PT Pertamina EP through cooperation contract to manage operations ar ea Benakat oil field operations West, Prabumulih, South Sumatra Province, the oil production areas of oil field operations West Benakat current average of 2000 barrels per day which will be increased to be 4000 barrels per day by the end of 2010.

Vice President Director Benakat M Suluhuddin Noor, said, since the takeover of management of the operating area of the West Benakat by BBP, BBP has increased production from the 77 existing production wells, from about 1,500 barrels of oil per day to about 2,000 barrels of oil per day within 6 months. Based on its development plan, PT BBP estimates of oil production more than 25 million barrels for a period of 15 years.

admin | Portfolio | 02 15th, 2010 | No Comments »